We study discretizations of polynomial processes using finite state Markov processes satisfying suitable moment matching conditions. The states of these Markov processes together with their transition probabilities can be interpreted as Markov cubature rules. The polynomial property allows us to...

We propose a new predictor of real economic activity (REA), namely the representative investor's implied relative risk aversion (IRRA) extracted from S&P 500 option prices. IRRA exploits the forward-looking information in option prices. It increases as risk averse investors enter the market,...

Empirical evidence suggests that fixed income markets exhibit unspanned stochastic volatility (USV), that is, that one cannot fully hedge volatility risk solely using a portfolio of bonds. While Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2002) showed that no two-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model can...

We propose a new predictor of U.S. real economic activity (REA), namely the representative investor's implied relative risk aversion (IRRA) extracted from S&P 500 option prices. IRRA is forward-looking and hence, it is expected to be related to future economic conditions. We document that U.S....

We review the notion of a linearity-generating (LG) process introduced by Gabaix (2007) and relate LG processes to linear-rational (LR) models studied by Filipovic, Larsson, and Trolle (2017). We show that every LR model can be represented as an LG process and vice versa. We find that LR models...

We examine whether the option market leads the stock market with respect to positive in addition to negative price discovery. We document that out-of-themoney (OTM) option prices, which determine the Risk-Neutral Skewness (RNS) of the underlying stock return's distribution, can embed positive...

We develop a comprehensive mathematical framework for polynomial jump-diffusions in a semimartingale context, which nest affine jump-diffusions and have broad applications in finance. We show that the polynomial property is preserved under polynomial transformations and Lévy time change. We...

Polynomial processes have the property that expectations of polynomial functions (of degree n, say) of the future state of the process conditional on the current state are given by polynomials (of degree n) of the current state. Here we explore the application of polynomial processes in the...

We derive a model-free option-based formula to estimate the contribution of market frictions to expected returns (CFER) within an asset pricing setting. We estimate CFER for the U.S. optionable stocks. We document that CFER is sizable, it predicts stock returns and it subsumes the effect of...

We introduce the class of linear-rational term structure models in which the state price density is modeled such that bond prices become linear-rational functions of the factors. This class is highly tractable with several distinct advantages: i) ensures nonnegative interest rates, ii) easily...