This study analyzes the sustainability implications of demographic and investment risks in the Finnish private sector pension system (TyEL). The results show that current contribution rate is likely to be too low to finance the future higher expenditure. The main sustainability problem is not,...

All practical evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and that has been taken into account in some studies by using stochastic population projections jointly with...

Pension prefunding can be used to smoothe contribution rates in economies where ageing will increase pension expenditure. But how extensive should prefunding be, in a defined benefit pension system, when there is considerable uncertainty concerning future mortality, fertility, and migration? We...

In anticipation of future gains in life expectancy, several countries have passed laws that automatically adjust pensions, if life expectancy changes. In this paper we study the effects of longevity adjustment under demographic uncertainty in Finland. If longevity increases, the adjustment...

Ageing will increase pension expenditure and contribution rates. There is also increasing awareness that the risks connected to mortality, fertility, and migration are considerable. In pension reforms one must decide how these risks are to be shared between workers and pensioners, and also take...

In non-financial defined contribution (NDC) pension systems the contribution rate is kept at a constant level. A key element is the balance mechanism which is automatically applied if the finances appear insufficient. The balance mechanism is based on the ratio of assets to liabilities. When the...

A major reform in the Finnish private-sector earnings-related pension system came into effect on January 1st, 2005. It was negotiated in 2001 – 2002 between the central organisations of employers and trade unions and representatives of the central government. This paper describes the reform...

This study analyses financial sustainability of the Finnish public sector. Current tax rates are unlikely to yield sufficient tax revenue for financing public expenditure under an ageing population. In the base alternative we assume that the European crisis does not worsen and that productivity...

Municipal employees and private-sector employees in Finland belong to separate earnings-related pension systems. Both systems are financed by contributions from the payroll, and are mostly pay-as-you-go. Thus if a municipality decides to buy services from the private sector, instead of producing...

This study analyses the adjustment of the Finnish earnings-related pension system to very low economic growth. The results show that a permanently lower growth rate of the wage bill would raise only moderately the pension contribution rates in the long term. This is because also the benefits are...