We propose a new nonlinear time series model of expected returns based on the dynamics of the cross-sectional rank of realized returns. We model the joint dynamics of a sharp jump in the cross-sectional rank and the asset return by analyzing (1) the marginal probability distribution of a jump in...

Decision theorists claim that an ordinal measure of risk may be sufficient for an agent to make a rational choice under uncertainty. We propose a measure of financial risk, namely the Varying Cross-sectional Risk (VCR), that is based on a ranking of returns. VCR is defined as the probability of...