We estimate the impact of annual obstetricians and gynecologists' conferences on births in Australia and the United States. In both countries, the number of births drops by 1 to 4 percent during the days on which these conferences are held. We argue that for this reason professional obstetrics...

It is well understood that government policies can distort behavior. But what is less often recognized is the anticipated introduction of a policy can introduce its own distortions. We study one such "introduction effect," using evidence from a unique policy change in Australia. In 2004, the...

We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This...