Decision makers frequently have to forecast the future values of a time series (e.g. the price of a commodity, sales figures) given several sources of information (e.g. leading indicators, forecasts of advisors). As a subdomain of decision theory the explanation and the improvement of human...

We present a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It extends standard decision theories like expected utility or cumulative prospect theory which are atemporal single stage theories. Instead it employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and...

Experimental studies of expectation formation of subjects are predominantly limited to the prediction of one single time series despite the practical relevance of expectations in situations with multiple sources of information. In this paper, we report on an experiment in which subjects are...