Purpose: This study aims to draw on a less explored predictor – the average correlation of pairwise returns on industry portfolios – to predict stock market returns (SMRs) in the USA. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses the average correlation approach of Pollet and Wilson (2010)...

Purpose: China’s outward foreign direct investment (ODI) has become a recent phenomenon in that China is now rated as the world’s third largest country for ODI. Previous studies have found that China’s ODI is driven by the attractions of natural resources and overseas markets. Yet these...

This paper examines the macroeconomic determinants of volatility of commodity futures. The focus of this paper is on two emerging commodity markets, China and India. It covers commodity futures from different sectors, including agricultural commodity futures, metal futures and oil futures. The...

We propose a new investment strategy, the improved cross-asset time-series momentum (I-XTSM) strategy, to improve investment performance. Using data on 25 investment portfolios and common commodities for the period from January 1990 to April 2021, we find that the I-XTSM strategy increases...

Purpose: The Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) neural network has demonstrated good performance in data mining, prediction, and optimization. Scholars have used it to forecast stock and real estate investment trust (REIT) returns in some countries and region, but not in the United States (US)...