We propose a kernel function for ordered categorical data that overcomes certain limitations present in ordered kernel functions that have appeared in the literature on the estimation of probability mass functions for multinomial ordered data. Some of these limitations arise from assumptions...

Probabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts. Another (we call it RS) began as...