This paper explores the impact of openness, as measured by import penetration, on the size and duration of fiscal multipliers and spillovers across European Union members. The analysis is embedded in a macroeconomic model, NiGEM, to capture structural differences across countries, time and...

Given the magnitude of “global imbalances” in the run-up to the subprime crisis, we test for an impact of the current account balance on the probability of banking crises in OECD countries since 1980. This variable has been neglected in most early warning models to date, despite its...

Abstract Liberalisation of the trading environment, through regional integration and the formation of WTO, is shown to increase trade growth relative to GDP. The impact of trade liberalisation compounded over time and added about 1.5 per cent per annum to world trade growth during the last...

Output growth in the Euro Area has been disappointing since the formation of EMU. This may be the consequence of the new monetary and exchange rate arrangements, but it is necessary to remove the effects of other factors such as the growth of labour input, skills, knowledge and risk premia. This...

Abstract Liberalisation of the trading environment, through regional integration and the formation of WTO, is shown to increase trade growth relative to GDP. The impact of trade liberalisation compounded over time and added about 1.5 per cent per annum to world trade growth during the last...

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