What predicts returns on assets with "hard-to-value" fundamentals, such as Bitcoin and stocks in new industries? We propose an equilibrium model that shows how rational learning enables return predictability through technical analysis. We document that ratios of prices to their moving averages...

In this paper, we show that the existence of a large, negative wealth shock and insufficient insurance against such a shock could explain both the limited stock market participation puzzle and the low-consumption-high-savings puzzle. We then conduct an empirical analysis on the relation between...

In this paper, we use a simple model to illustrate that the existence of a large, negative wealth shock and insufficient insurance against such a shock can potentially explain both the limited stock market participation puzzle and the low-consumption-high-savings puzzle that are widely...

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings have significant impact on market returns. We propose a methodology to recover the risk premium associated with FOMC meetings from option prices. We also predict the sizes of upward/downward market price jumps after an imminent FOMC meeting. In...

The market risk premium is central in finance, and has been analyzed by numerous studies in the time-series predictability literature and by growing studies in the options literature. In this paper, we provide a novel link between the two literatures. Theoretically, we derive a lower bound on...

In this paper, we provide an estimate of the ex-ante risk premia on earnings announcements based on the option market. We find that the risk premia are time-varying and have predictive power on future stock returns. With our ex-ante risk premia as a measure of uncertainty before each earnings...