Our paper presents a crude oil price model in which the price is confined in a wide moving band. A price crash occurs when the price breaches the lower boundary where a smooth-pasting condition is imposed. Using an asymmetric mean-reverting fundamental (supply/demand) shock, the solution derived...

Our paper presents a crude oil price model in which the price is confined in a wide moving band. A price crash occurs when the price breaches the lower boundary where a smooth-pasting condition is imposed. Using an asymmetric mean-reverting fundamental (supply/demand) shock, the solution derived...

Two-market anomalies since the 2008 global financial crisis – the widespread failure of covered interest parity (CIP) in foreign exchange swaps and negative 30-year US dollar interest rate swap-Treasury spreads have been challenging for conventional asset pricing models. Using a three-factor...

An exchange rate model with crash risk is developed with the exchange rate confined in a wide moving band. A currency crash occurs when its exchange rate breaches a boundary. Using an asymmetric mean-reverting fundamental shock to incorporate intervention policy in the model, the log-normalised...

This paper presents a benchmarking model for validation of default probabilities of listed companies for Basel II purposes. The model is based on the recent studies on the predictive capability of structural credit risk models. Benchmark ratings and one-year default probabilities are assigned to...

Using interest rate derivative market prices, this paper derives the term structure of the LIBOR-overnight index swap (OIS) spread, which is considered as the funding liquidity risk premium, following the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model. The probability density functions of the LIBOR-OIS spread...

This paper studies the discriminatory power and calibration quality of the structural credit risk models under the 'exogenous default boundary' approach including those proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) and Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2001), and 'endogenous default boundary' approach...

Yield curve control (YCC) allows central banks to control long-term interest rates within a pre-announced trading band to complement traditional monetary policy. This note uses a target-zone model developed for exchange rates to study the bond yield movements under YCC. The bond yield is assumed...

This working paper was written by Cho-Hoi Hui (Hong Kong Monetary Authority), Andrew Wong(Hong Kong Monetary Authority) and Chi-Fai Lo (The Chinese University of Hong Kong).This note uses a target-zone model to study the bond yield movements under yield curve control. The bond yield is assumed...