We forecast portfolio risk for managing dynamic tail risk protection strategies, based on extreme value theory, expectile regression, Copula-GARCH and dynamic GAS models. Utilizing a loss function that overcomes the lack of elicitability for Expected Shortfall, we propose a novel Expected...

We investigate portfolio diversification strategies based on hierarchical clustering. These hierarchical risk parity strategies use graph theory and unsupervised machine learning to build diversified portfolios by acknowledging the hierarchical structure of the investment universe. In this...

Aiming to optimally harvest global equity factor premiums, we investigated the benefits of parametric portfolio policies for timing factors conditioned on time-series predictors and tilting factors based on cross-sectional factor characteristics. We discovered that equity factors are predictably...

Pursuing risk-based allocation across a universe of commodity assets, we find diversified risk parity (DRP) strategies to provide convincing results. DRP strives for maximum diversification along uncorrelated risk sources. A straightforward way to derive uncorrelated risk sources relies on...

Identifying economic regimes is useful in a world of time-varying risk premia. We apply regime switching models to common factors proxying for the macroeconomic regime and show that the ensuing regime factor is relevant in forecasting the equity risk premium. Moreover, the relevance of this...

Equity investments promise high expected returns, but not many investors can tolerate the associated risks. A possible solution may be to complement the equity strategy with a portfolio insurance element which ideally reduces the equity exposure whenever necessary to prevent the overall strategy...

To limit the maximum loss of a portfolio, investment strategies can be enhanced by adding a portfolio insurance component. We have analyzed various portfolio insurance strategies – from the static stop-loss concept to option-based strategies and dynamic portfolio insurance strategies. The...

The concept of second-order risk operationalizes the estimation risk in portfolio construction induced by model uncertainty. We study its contribution to the realized volatility of recently developed risk parity strategies. For each strategy, we derive closed-form solutions for the second-order...

We investigate a new way of equity portfolio selection that provides maximum diversification along the uncorrelated risk sources inherent in the S&P 500 constituents. This diversified risk parity strategy is distinct from prevailing risk-based portfolio construction paradigms. Especially, the...

Striving for maximum diversification we follow Meucci (2009) in measuring and managing a multi-asset class portfolio. Under this paradigm the maximum diversification portfolio is equivalent to a risk parity strategy with respect to the uncorrelated risk sources embedded in the underlying...