We evaluate the probability that an estimated Sharpe ratio exceeds a given threshold in presence of non-Normal returns. We show that this new uncertainty-adjusted investment skill metric (called Probabilistic Sharpe ratio, or PSR) has a number of important applications: First, it allows us to...

In this presentation, we analyze the explanatory (in-sample) and predictive (out-of-sample) importance of some of the best known market microstructural features. Our conclusions are drawn over the entire universe of the 87 most liquid futures worldwide, covering all asset classes, going back...

One of the fundamental shortcoming of the popular analysis tools for time series is that they require the data to be taken at uniform time intervals. However, the real-world time series, such as those from financial markets, are mostly from irregular time intervals. It is a common practice to...

Portfolio optimization is one of the problems most frequently encountered by financial practitioners. To our knowledge, the Critical Line Algorithm (CLA) is the only algorithm specifically designed for inequality-constrained portfolio optimization problems, which guarantees that the exact...

How best to discern trading intentions from market data? We examine the accuracy of three methods for classifying trade data: bulk volume classification (BVC), Tick Rule and Aggregated Tick Rule. We develop a Bayesian model of inferring information from trade executions, and show the conditions...

* It has been estimated that the current size of the asset management industry is approximately US$58 trillion.* Portfolio optimization is one of the problems most frequently encountered by financial practitioners. It appears in various forms in the context of Trading, Risk Management and...

Multiple empirical studies have shown that Order Flow Imbalance has predictive power over the trading range.The PIN Theory (Easley et al. [1996]) reveals the Microstructure mechanism by which: Market Makers adjust their trading range to avoid being adversely selected by Informed Traders;...

SEC and CFTC reports estimate that High Frequency strategies are responsible for about 60% of all transactions on U.S. shares. In Europe, this percentage is around 40% and growing. High Frequency strategies are those characterized by a brief holding period, which can range from a split second to...

Execution traders know that market impact greatly depends on whether their orders lean with or against the market. We introduce the OEH model, which incorporates this fact when determining the optimal trading horizon for an order, an input required by many sophisticated execution strategies....

The ‘flash crash' of May 6th 2010 was the second largest point swing (1,010.14 points) and the biggest one-day point decline (998.5 points) in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For a few minutes, $1 trillion in market value vanished. In this paper, we argue that the ‘flash...