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Modeling the dynamics of EU economic sentiment indicators: an interaction-based approach
Ghonghadze, Jaba; Lux, Thomas - 2009
This paper estimates a simple univariate model of expectation or opinion formation in continuous time adapting a 'canonical' stochastic model of collective opinion dynamics (Weidlich and Haag, 1983; Lux, 1995, 2007). This framework is applied to a selected data set on survey-based expectations from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263547
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Modeling the dynamics of EU economic sentiment indicators : an interaction-based approach
Ghonghadze, Jaba (contributor); Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2009
This paper estimates a simple univariate model of expectation or opinion formation in continuous time adapting a 'canonical' stochastic model of collective opinion dynamics (Weidlich and Haag, 1983; Lux, 1995, 2007). This framework is applied to a selected data set on survey-based expectations from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003811852
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Multifractal models, intertrade durations and return volatility
Segnon, Mawuli - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299266
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Evolvement of uniformity and volatility in the stressed global financial village
Kenett, Dror Y.; Raddant, Matthias; Lux, Thomas; … - 2011
quantify inter-market relations. The approach is based on the correlations between the market index, the index volatility, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009354737
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Essays on micromotives and macrobehavior, expectation formation, and asset price dynamics
Ghonghadze, Jaba - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009706287
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Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo stock market: Long memory, fractality and regime switching
Lux, Thomas; Kaizoji, Taisei - 2006
We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular … practically always improves upon the na?ve forecast provided by historical volatility. As a somewhat surprising result, we also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294979
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The Markov-switching multi-fractal model of asset returns: GMM estimation and linear forecasting of volatility
Lux, Thomas - 2004
Bayesian forecasting of volatility. However, applicability of MLE is restricted to cases with a discrete distribution of … volatility components. From a practical point of view, ML also becomes computationally unfeasible for large numbers of components … forecasts which in principle is applicable for any continuous distribution with any number of volatility components. Monte Carlo …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295106
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Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo stock market: The advantage of long memory models
Lux, Thomas; Kaizoji, Taisei - 2004
We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular … practically always improves upon the na?ve forecast provided by historical volatility. As a somewhat surprising result, we also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295136
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The Markov-Switching Multifractal Model of asset returns: GMM estimation and linear forecasting of volatility
Lux, Thomas - 2006
forecasting of volatility. However, applicability of MLE is restricted to cases with a discrete distribution of volatility … which in principle is applicable for any continuous distribution with any number of volatility components. Monte Carlo … linear compared to optimal forecasts is small. Extending the number of volatility components beyond what is feasible with MLE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295151