In our recent paper, (Reinhart and Reinhart, 2010) we examine the behavior of real GDP (levels and growth rates), unemployment, inflation, bank credit, and real estate prices in a twenty one-year window surrounding selected adverse global and country-specific shocks or events. In this note, we...

Protracted expansionary monetary policies in advanced countries have renewed the debate over policy options to cope with large capital inflows that drive credit expansions in emerging economies. In a forthcoming paper, we show that during capital inflow bonanzas credit grows more rapidly and its...

This paper presents evidence on the behavior of output and inflation in the transition economies during 1992-95. A regression analysis explores the differences in output performance across the transition economies during this period. The paper then engages in a numerical, somewhat speculative,...

This paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia for the period 1989-1994. Inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program. Growth resumes...

In this study, we begin by assessing the ability of sovereign credit ratings to anticipate crises. In addition, given the wave of sovereign credit ratings downgrades that have followed the crises in Asia, we investigate formally the extent to which credit ratings are reactive. Along the way, we...

The preceding sections have predominantly focused on the antecedents of financial crises. Namely, the emphasis has been on the ability of a variety of indicators, including the credit ratings, to anticipate crises and characterize the extent to which a country is vulnerable. An application of...

This note reviews the theories as to why financial crises spill over across national boundaries. We discuss alternative frameworks ranging from bilateral trade links to more complex financial interconnections via banks and other investors. We review the evidence on which channels of contagion...

In a recent paper, we studied economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. The public discussion of our empirical strategy and results has been somewhat muddled. Here, we attempt to clarify matters, particularly with respect sample coverage (our evidence...

Due in part to 40 years of cyclical violence, economic growth in Burundi has remained well below the sub-Saharan Africa average, and Burundi is now the third poorest country in the world. The status quo is unacceptable, and it is essential that the Government drive the changes needed to achieve...

Due in part to 40 years of cyclical violence, economic growth in Burundi has remained well below the sub-Saharan Africa average, and Burundi is now the third poorest country in the world. The status quo is unacceptable, and it is essential that the Government drive the changes needed to achieve...