In our recent paper, (Reinhart and Reinhart, 2010) we examine the behavior of real GDP (levels and growth rates), unemployment, inflation, bank credit, and real estate prices in a twenty one-year window surrounding selected adverse global and country-specific shocks or events. In this note, we...

This paper presents evidence on the behavior of output and inflation in the transition economies during 1992-95. A regression analysis explores the differences in output performance across the transition economies during this period. The paper then engages in a numerical, somewhat speculative,...

This paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia for the period 1989-1994. Inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program. Growth resumes...

In a recent paper, we studied economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. The public discussion of our empirical strategy and results has been somewhat muddled. Here, we attempt to clarify matters, particularly with respect sample coverage (our evidence...

Due in part to 40 years of cyclical violence, economic growth in Burundi has remained well below the sub-Saharan Africa average, and Burundi is now the third poorest country in the world. The status quo is unacceptable, and it is essential that the Government drive the changes needed to achieve...

Due in part to 40 years of cyclical violence, economic growth in Burundi has remained well below the sub-Saharan Africa average, and Burundi is now the third poorest country in the world. The status quo is unacceptable, and it is essential that the Government drive the changes needed to achieve...

Given all the ambiguities about the outcomes of the financial liberalization process, it is relevant to ask what the systematic, cross-country evidence reveals on several questions, including: What happens to key macroeconomic and variables following domestic and external financial...

The relationship between real interest rates, saving, and gre is a cen tral issue in development economics. Using iflaCrOecOnOFflic data for c cross-section of countries, we estimate a model in %i’hlc/I 1/ic intertemporal elasticity of subsutution varies with the level of wealth. The estimated...

Using annual data for Colombia over the last 30 years, we test competing theories that explain macroeconomic fluctuations: the neoclassical synthesis, which posits that in the presence of temporary price rigidity, an unanticipated monetary expansion produces output gains that erode over time...

The relationship between temporary terms of trade shocks and household saving in developing countries is examined. It is first shown that, from a theoretical standpoint, this relationship is ambiguous: private saving may rise or fall in response to a transitory terms of trade shock, depending on...