In this paper we demonstrate that there is evidence of an unstable and nonlinear relationship between fundamentals and exchange rates. Modeling this time-varying nature of the importance of fundamentals in a Markov switching framework substantially improves the fit of the real interest rate...

Poland is obligated to adopt the euro after the fulfilment, inter alia, of the exchange rate criterion which requires entering the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II). The European Central Bank recommends that the ERM II central rate should reflect the best possible assessment of the equilibrium...

The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (using fixed and random effects) for the real exchange rate, with different model specifications, in...

This paper extends the real interest differential (RID) model of Frankel (1979) by introducing Markov regime switches for three exchange rates over the years 1973 - 2000. Evidence of a non-linear relationship between exchange rates and underlying fundamentals is provided. One of the regimes...