This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters’ performance is skill-based. ‘Superior’ forecasters...

IThis paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters’ performance is skill-based. ‘Superior’ fore-casters...

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...

This is the first study that employs option pricing model to measure the position-unwinding risk of currency carry trade portfolios, which covers moment information as the proxy for crash risk. We show that high interest-rate currencies are exposed to higher position-unwinding risk than low...

We show that the profitability of currency carry trades can be understood as the compensation for exchange rate misalignment risk based on the rare disastrous model of exchange rates (Farhi and Gabaix, 2008). It explains over 97% of the cross-sectional excess returns and dominates other...

Most technical analysis studies are concerned with the profitability of technical trading rules and almost all of them focus exclusively on trend- following patterns. In this paper we examine a different kind of technical indicator which suggests a structural relationship between High, Low, and...

Most technical analysis studies are concerned with the profitability of technical trading rules and almost all of them focus exclusively on trend-following patterns. In this paper we examine a different kind of technical indicator which suggests a structural relationship between High, Low, and...

In this paper we investigate 3 important properties of global currencies: misalignments measured by the deviations from equilibrium (real effective) exchange rates, crash sensitivity captured by the copula tail dependence to the global market, and moment risk premia using a model-free method --...

In this paper we derive the measure of position-unwinding risk of currency carry trade portfolios from the currency option pricing model. The position-unwinding likelihood indicator is in nature driven by interest rate differential and currency volatility, and highly correlated with global...