This paper provides an analysis of the link between the oil market and the U.S. stock market returns at the aggregate as well as industry levels. We empirically model oil price changes as driven by speculative demand shocks along with consumption demand and supply shocks in the oil market. We...

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the oil market and the U.S. stock market returns at the aggregate as well as industry levels. We empirically model oil price changes as driven by speculative demand shocks along with consumption demand and supply shocks in the oil market. We...

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the oil market and the U.S. stock market returns at the aggregate as well as industry levels. We empirically model oil price changes as driven by speculative demand shocks along with consumption demand and supply shocks in the oil market. We...

We present a weekly structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of the US crude oil market. Exploiting weekly data we can explain short-run crude oil price dynamics, including those related with the COVID-19 pandemic and with the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The model is set identified with...

The identification of the effects of climate shocks on economic growth is central to design effective policies aiming at managing the future global climate change challenge. In this study, we investigate the effects of temperature and precipitation shocks on economic growth across different...

This paper evaluates how different types of speculation affect the volatility of commodities' futures prices. We adopt four indexes of speculation: Working's T, the market share of non-commercial traders, the percentage of net long speculators over total open interest in future markets, which...

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring phenomenon that affects weather around the world. Past ENSO episodes have had severe impacts on the economy of Colombia. We study the influence of ENSO on Colombian coffee production, exports, and price. Our structural econometric...

This paper analyses futures prices for four energy commodities (light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas) and five agricultural commodities (corn, oats, soybean oil, soybeans and wheat), over the period 1986-2010. Using CCC and DCC multivariate GARCH models, we find that...

According to the Rockets and Feathers hypothesis (RFH), the transmission mechanism of positive and negative changes in the price of crude oil to the price of gasoline is asymmetric. Although there have been many contributions documenting that downstream prices are more reactive to increases than...

We study the impact of oil price shocks on U.S. stock market volatility. We derive three different structural oil shock variables (i.e. aggregate demand, oil-supply, and oil-demand shocks) and relate them to stock market volatility, using bivariate structural VAR models, one for each oil price...