Election polls elicit from individuals forecasts of their prospective voting behavior. Standard verbal polling questions do not enable respondents to adequately express uncertainty about whether they will vote and, if so, for whom. This paper puts forward the idea of probabilistic polling, which...

This paper analyzes the probabilistic measures of job insecurity that have recently become available through the nationwide Survey of Economic Expectations (SEE). Since 1994, employed SEE respondents have been asked questions eliciting their expectations of job loss in the coming year and their...

The basic idea of program evaluation is both simple and appealing. Program outcomes are measured and compared to some minimum performance standard or threshold. In practice, however, evaluation is quite difficult. Two fundamental problems of outcome measurement must be addressed. The first,...