We investigate co-movements and heterogeneity in inflation dynamics of different regions within and across euro area … countries using a novel disaggregate dataset to improve the understanding of inflation differentials in the European Monetary … Union. We employ a model where regional inflation dynamics are explained by common euro area and country specific factors as …

2006. It turns out that real-time estimates of the output gap are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much … higher than that resulting from model and estimation uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the … magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due …

We investigate co-movements and heterogeneity in inflation dynamics of different regions within and across euro area … countries using a novel disaggregate dataset to improve the understanding of inflation differentials in the European Monetary … Union. We employ a model where regional inflation dynamics are explained by common euro area and country specific factors as …

Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about the expected … trajectory of a random variable in periods T+1 to T+H is a key ingredient for decision making under uncertainty. The … inflation. …

component explains much less of the variation in sectoral regional inflation rates and exhibits much less volatility than …

A theoretical model for growth or inflation should be able to reproduce the empirical features of these variables … the real business cycle literature or by new-keynesian studies on inflation persistence. While a time series model can … series models can really outperform standard linear models for GDP growth and inflation, and should therefore substitute them …

In this Paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflation and GDP growth …