Showing 1 - 10 of 173
This paper introduces a new regression model - Markov-switching mixed data sampling (MS-MIDAS) - that incorporates regime changes in the parameters of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) models and allows for the use of mixed-frequency data in Markov-switching models. After a discussion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008868072
This paper develops a method for producing current-quarter forecasts of GDP growth with a (possibly large) range of available within-the-quarter monthly observations of economic indicators, such as employment and industrial production, and financial indicators, such as stock prices and interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084707
The development of models for variables sampled at different frequencies has attracted substantial interest in the recent econometric literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the most common techniques, including bridge equations, MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, mixed frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010610582
This paper introduces a new regression model - Markov-switching mixed data sampling (MS-MIDAS) - that incorporates regime changes in the parameters of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) models and allows for the use of mixed-frequency data in Markov-switching models. After a discussion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854481
We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422130
second survey-based factor, and the short term forecasting performance of the model in a pseudo-real time experiment. We find …. Moreover, the two factor model outperforms in terms of out of sample forecasting accuracy the traditional autoregressive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005039563
The development of models for variables sampled at different frequencies has attracted substantial interest in the recent econometric literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the most common techniques, including bridge equations, MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, mixed frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143818
the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyse the problem of … leading indicator based forecasts, and review the recent literature on the forecasting performance of leading indicators. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666459
In this paper we provide an overview of recent developments in the methodology for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes, and apply them to the UK. In particular, we evaluate the relative merits of factor based models and Markov switching specifications for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005106395
The development of models for variables sampled at di¤erent frequencies has attracted substantial interest in the recent econometric literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the most common techniques, including bridge equations, MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, mixed frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835415