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We analyze the contribution of credit spread, house and stock price shocks to GDP growth in the US based on a Bayesian VAR with time-varying parameters estimated over 1958-2012. Our main findings are: (i) The contribution of financial shocks to GDP growth fluctuates from about 20 percent in...
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the factor dynamics, and more marked variation in the factors' shock volatility and their loading parameters. Forecasts …-term interest rates to an equally-sized monetary policy shock has decreased since the early-1980s. -- FAVAR ; time …
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