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We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the information contained in a large panel of yields. In particular, we use a large Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) with an optimal amount of shrinkage towards univariate AR...
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censored observations of a latent shadow-rate process, and propose an efficient sampler for Bayesian estimation of such “shadow … including both. In comparison to a standard VAR, shadow-rate VARs generate superior predictions for short- and long …
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