This study evaluates the accuracy of the private-sector forecasts of inflation and growth in industrial production collected by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB). In addition to examining directional accuracy, we utilize as benchmarks both naïve and univariate autoregressive moving-average...

This study asks whether the Brazilian exchange rate (R$/US$) survey forecasts are rational under flexible loss. For 2001--2011, the forecasts overpredict. The bias in shorter-horizon forecasts is due to an inefficient use of information, while the bias in longer-horizon forecasts seems to...

This study shows that the private sector accurately predicts short-term interest rate targets set by the Brazilian monetary authorities. With increased transparency under inflation targeting, such evidence suggests that the public perceives the central bank as credible.