Monthly stock market returns are predictable when we refine the observation intervals of the variables used to predict these returns. Contrary to other predictability studies we find high out-of-sample adjusted R2s of up to 7% using economically important commodity returns. Shorter intervals...

Price movements in industrial metals such as copper and aluminum predict stock returns. Increasing industrial metal prices are good news for equity markets in recessions and bad news in expansions. A one standard deviation increase in industrial metal returns predicts a price drop of one and a...

We study the relative importance of social factors (including household, workplace, and neighbourhood peer effects) and personal characteristics (including age, gender, tax rates, and funds under management) for asset allocation decisions. The most important factors (in order) are household peer...