This paper surveys and reexamines Fiscal Theory of Price Level's (FTPL, hereafter) theoretical framework as well as empirical and policy implications. A simple theoretical model, which unifies various models and notations scattered in the literature, is presented and reexamined through changes...

This paper statistically examines regional distributions of foreign workers based on municipal data, and estimates their effects on regional economies. The distribution of the ratios of foreign to Japanese workers is approximately log-normal, and their joint distribution of 2000 and 2003 shows a...

Using short-term interest rates from the 1980s to 2003, we test the real interest rate parity between Japan and eight Asian countries. The parity can not be rejected for Singapore only. Tests by 5-year period show the number of rejections is smaller in the 2000s than in the first half of the...

This paper evaluates density forecasts using micro data from the ESP forecast (ESPF), a monthly survey of Japanese professional forecasters. The ESPF has collected individual density forecasts since June 2008. We employ two approaches, Probability Integral Transform (PIT) and Ranked Probability...

Substantial improvement in health conditions during 35 years from 1970 to 2005 has made Japan one of the top countries for longevity in the world. This paper tries to quantify value of the improvement by willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a decline in death rate during the period, following Murphy and...

Economists unanimously agree that economic agents' expectations are crucially important in determining macroeconomic outcomes. However, mainstream macroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are rational, leaving unexamined the fundamental question whether individual agents' actual...

This paper aims to take stock of four years of ESP forecast experience since its launch in 2004. The consensus performs well, compared to individual forecasters, which is confirmed probably for the first time in Japan. It satisfies the average form of rational expectations hypothesis defined in...

This paper conducts a survey asking economists, but not specialists of forecasting, to submit their forecasts of real GDP growth and CPI inflation rates for 2007Q4, 2008Q1 and FY 2009, and compares the responses with the corresponding results of the ESP forecasts, a monthly survey of...

This paper examines forecast data of the ESP Forecast (hereafter ESPF), the monthly survey of forecasts for the Japanese economy, for 4 variable -- three quarterly figures of real GDP growth rates, year-on-year CPI growth rate and unemployment rate, and fiscal year real GDP growth rate -- in FY...