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Optimized Taylor Rules for Disinflation When Agents are Learning
Cogley, Timothy; Matthes, Christian; Sbordone, Argia M. - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond - 2014
Highly volatile transition dynamics can emerge when a central bank disinflates while operating without full transparency. In our model, a central bank commits to a Taylor rule whose form is known but whose coefficient are not. Private agents learn about policy parameters via Bayesian updating....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010758362
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Two-sided Learning in New Keynesian Models: Dynamics, (Lack of) Convergence and the Value of Information
Matthes, Christian; Rondina, Francesca - Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Barcelona GSE) - 2012
This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New … these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics … demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011132910
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Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information
Matthes, Christian; Rondina, Francesca - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2012
This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New … these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics … demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010896610
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Two-sided Learning in New Keynesian Models: Dynamics, (Lack of) Convergence and the Value of Information
Matthes, Christian; Rondina, Francesca - Departament d'Economia i Història Econòmica, … - 2012
This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New … these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics … demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010906119
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Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty
Hollmayr, Josef; Matthes, Christian - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2013
The recent crisis in the United States has often been associated with substantial amounts of policy uncertainty. In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957088
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Tales of transition paths: Policy uncertainty and random walks
Hollmayr, Josef; Matthes, Christian - 2015
What happens when fiscal and/or monetary policy changes systematically? We construct a DSGE model in which agents have to estimate fiscal and monetary policy rules and assess how uncertainty surrounding the conduct of policymakers influences transition paths after policy changes. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291861
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Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty
Hollmayr, Josef; Matthes, Christian - 2013
The recent crisis in the United States has often been associated with substantial amounts of policy uncertainty. In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010327538
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Optimal disinflation under learning
Cogley, Timothy; Matthes, Christian; Sbordone, Argia M. - 2011
agents learn about the new policy via Bayesian updating, and we study how learning affects the nature of the transition and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287089
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Dynamics of monetary-fiscal interaction under learning : conference paper
Hollmayr, Josef; Matthes, Christian - 2014 - Very preliminary and incomplete
The interaction between monetary and fiscal policy and the associated uncertainty about this interaction have been put on center stage by the recent financial crisis and the associated recession. In our model agents learn about both fiscal and monetary policy rules via the Kalman Filter. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491162
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Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty
Hollmayr, Josef; Matthes, Christian - In: Journal of economic dynamics & control 59 (2015), pp. 142-162
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011575062