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A risk management strategy is proposed as being robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility...
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In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume...
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-making process. Herding is the deliberate mimicking of the decisions of other agents. Examples of mimicry range from the choice of … restaurant, fashion and financial market participants, to academic research. Herding may conjure negative images of irrational … provide a direct test of herding behaviour, namely the extent to which small traders mimic the positions of large speculators …
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