This paper presents a framework for estimating losses for residential mortgage loans.At the core is a transitions-based probability of default model which yields directly observ- able cash-fl ows at the loan level. The estimated model includes coefficients on unemployment, Loan to Value ratio...

Using a large panel data set on the population of UK mortgage loans by Irish-headquartered banks, this paper presents a transitions-based model of mortgage default. The estimation departs from cross-sectional methods typically used in mortgage default models, in that the transition both into and...