It is common for authors discovering a significant interaction of a measured variable X with a manipulated variable Z to examine simple effects of Z at different levels of X. These “spotlight” tests are often misunderstood even in the simplest cases, and it appears that consumer researchers...

Iacobucci, Posovac, Kardes, Schneider, and Popavich (2015a) published a defense of median splits. We (McClelland, Lynch, Irwin, Spiller, and Fitzsimons 2015) and Rucker, McShane, and Preacher (2015) published criticism of each of the key conclusions from Iacobucci et al. Iacobucci et al. (2015b)...

The authors review research on judgments of random and nonrandom sequences involving binary events with a focus on studies documenting gambler's fallacy and hot hand beliefs. The domains of judgment include random devices, births, lotteries, sports performances, stock prices, and others. After...

Numerous studies have demonstrated that theoretically equivalent measures of preference, such as choices and prices, can lead to systematically different preference orderings, known as preference reversals. Two major causes of preference reversals are the compatibility effect and the prominence...

Moderated multiple regression models allow the simple relationship between the dependent variable and an independent variable to depend on the level of another independent variable. The moderated relationship, often referred to as the interaction, is modeled by including a product term as an...

Considerable prior statistical work has criticized replacing a continuously measured variable in a general linear model with a dichotomy based on a median split of that variable. Iacobucci, Posovac, Kardes, Schneider, and Popovich (this issue) defend the practice of “median splits” using...

Probabilistic risk analyses often construct multistage chance trees to estimate the joint probability of compound events. If random measurement error is associated with some or all of the estimates, we show that resulting estimates of joint probability may be highly skewed. Joint probability...

Marketing researchers frequently split (dichotomize) continuous predictor variables into two groups, such as with a median split, before performing data analysis. The practice is prevalent but its effects are not well understood. In this paper, we present historic results on the effects of...