The most popular method of measuring structural budget balances is the “gaps plus elasticities” approach. Abtract: In this paper, it is argued that the idiosyncratic features of an economy need to be accounted for properly when seeking to achieve good estimates of structural budget balances...

With a favourable demographic profile, a budget balance currently in surplus and gross government debt under 60 per cent of GDP, Ireland would appear to be an economy with time on its side before any concerns about fiscal sustainability arise. In this paper, it is argued that favourable baseline...

David Cronin and Daniel McCoy observe that, in contrast to most other EU member states, Ireland is fortunate to have time on its side to deal with the fiscal sustainability issues that an ageing population will present. This is so both because the Irish economy has had several years of strong...

The paper on the Irish experience by Cronin and McCoy highlights how specific features of the economy may account for large differences in the results of the two approaches – those based on a production function and those relying on statistical filters – and hinder accurate estimates of the...