The emergence of substantial fiscal deficits and a large build up of government debt in major advanced economies will inevitably lead to a period of fiscal consolidation in coming years. In an earlier paper, McKibbin and Stoeckel (2010) explored the effects of this fiscal adjustment in advanced...

Under reasonable assumptions, China could achieve parity in living standard with Western Europe by 2100, and India by 2150. Climate change, however, may be a key obstacle preventing such a convergence. The business-as-usual (BAU) growth path of the world might increase concentration of...

This paper explores the implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak on the global economy through a range of scenarios (mild, moderate, severe and ultra) that span the historical experience of influenza pandemics of the twentieth century. An influenza pandemic would be expected to lead to: a...

Copenhagen failed to produce an agreement on climate change commensurate with the scale of the problem, highlighting the fundamental weaknesses in the existing UN framework. Progress on a new agreement is agonisingly slow. Weightier commitments by the major emitters are necessary, but calls for...

In this Perspective, based on the 2007 Shann Memorial Lecture, Professor Warwick McKibbin outlines the key features that are needed in a new climate change framework beyond Kyoto, drawing on lessons from monetary history. Using the analogy of the way modern central banks run monetary policy, it...

The massive fiscal stimulus in the wake of the global financial crisis has refocused the international community onto the nature and role of infrastructure spending. Although this type of spending can provide a short-term demand stimulus to an economy, in the medium to longer term it can form a...

To estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy, analysts usually compare a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy. Both scenarios require assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth,...

Climate and energy issues will be some of the most urgent challenges facing the next U.S. president. These issues will need immediate attention to create a policy framework that will enable timely reductions in greenhouse gas emissions while minimizing the economic burden on American working...

The prediction of future temperature increases depends critically on the projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. Yet there is a vigorous debate about how these projections should be undertaken and how reasonable is the approach of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)...