This paper examines the forecasting ability of the dividend-price ratio for international stock market returns. Hitherto, existing research has only considered this issue in sample and in a linear framework. Hence, this paper provides the first systematic study of non-linear forecasting within...

This paper argues that dividend yield stock return predictability is time-varying. We conjecture that such time-variation is linked to the business cycle. Employing monthly data for US sector portfolios we estimate 5-year rolling fixed window predictive regressions. The resulting series of...

Using data spanning 200 years we examine the nature of the long-run cointegrating behaviour between real output and real stock prices. A standard cointegration framework demonstrates that such a long-run relationship exists with both variables exhibiting significant equilibrium reversion, albeit...

The debate regarding rising temperatures and CO₂ emissions has attracted the attention of economists employing recent econometric techniques. This article extends the previous literature using a dataset that covers 800 000 years, as well as a shorter dataset, and examines the interaction...

Persistence in economic variables is common. We re-examine that using a time-varying parameter model. Results support a substantial reduction in persistence, particularly, when allowing for time-variation in the constant. This has important implications for policy-making and the effect of shocks.