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This paper investigates the role of oil as a determinant of the US stock-bond correlation. The analysis uses monthly data over the period from February 1990 to July 2021. We examine the impact of oil shocks, using the Ready (2018) method, alongside a range of macroeconomic variables on the...
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We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...
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local and global predictive factors. Recent research has argued that US returns have predictive power for international … of the global factor, based on principal components analysis. Results identify three global expected returns factors, one … the principal components based factors to a US return factor and local market only factors, as well as the historical mean …
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