Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despite this limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent...

Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Keeping this in mind, five lessons emerge : First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises....

Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Keeping this in mind, five lessons emerge : First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises....

Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despite this limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent...

We construct a novel database of monthly foreign exchange interventions for 49 countries over up to 22 years. We build on a text classification approach that extracts information about interventions from news articles and calibrate our procedure to data about actual interventions. Our new...

We construct a novel database of monthly foreign exchange interventions for 49 countries over up to 22 years. We build on a text classification approach that extracts information about interventions from news articles and calibrate our procedure to data about actual interventions. Our new...

Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchangerates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despitethis limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecastingpower and thus help policy-makers to prevent...

In our current time the idea of a global currency seems to be pathbreaking. However, the introduction of such a currency requires a uniform governance which implicates that countries lose national autonomy. Presently, countries prefer national monetary policy and national financial regulation....

The external imbalances in Europe have led the Europzone into a crisis. Out of three goals in international monetary policy, only two can be realized at the same time. By joining a monetary union a country has implicitly decided about these two goals. In order to stay competitive, wages and...

The G20 summits in 2009 have proposed major changes in governance of the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF). Most important seems to be the acknowledgment that the IMF in itscurrent form lacks legitimacy and ownership. Accordingly, the G20 suggests a reallocation ofvoting shares to emerging and...