Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchangerates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despitethis limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecastingpower and thus help policy-makers to prevent...

In our current time the idea of a global currency seems to be pathbreaking. However, the introduction of such a currency requires a uniform governance which implicates that countries lose national autonomy. Presently, countries prefer national monetary policy and national financial regulation....

The external imbalances in Europe have led the Europzone into a crisis. Out of three goals in international monetary policy, only two can be realized at the same time. By joining a monetary union a country has implicitly decided about these two goals. In order to stay competitive, wages and...

The G20 summits in 2009 have proposed major changes in governance of the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF). Most important seems to be the acknowledgment that the IMF in itscurrent form lacks legitimacy and ownership. Accordingly, the G20 suggests a reallocation ofvoting shares to emerging and...

Die Phase zunehmender Globalisierung scheint mit der weltweiten Finanzkrise im Jahr 2008 zu Ende gegangen sein, was sich nicht nur im sinkenden Welthandel relativ zur Wertschöpfung ausdrückt. Auch in der internationalen Finanzarchitektur ist dieser Trend zu beobachten. Hier zeigt er sich in...

Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despite this limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent...

The G20 summits in 2009 have proposed major changes in governance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Most important seems to be the acknowledgment that the IMF in its current form lacks legitimacy and ownership. Accordingly, the G20 suggests a reallocation of voting shares to emerging and...

Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Keeping this in mind, five lessons emerge : First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises....

Central banks frequently intervene in foreign exchange markets. Using recognized criteria this report analyzes the probability of success in a data set of 4,500 intervention episodes in 33 countries. It is important to differentiate among exchange rate regimes because each focuses on a different...

Zentralbanken, zum Beispiel die schweizerische und die zahlreicher Schwellenländer, intervenieren häufig an Devisenmärkten. Es ist jedoch nicht unmittelbar festzustellen, ob diese Interventionen wirksam sind. Mittels anerkannter Kriterien analysiert dieser Bericht die...