We study the relationship between water nutrient pollution and U.S. agriculture using data between the early 1970s and late 2010s. We estimate a positive causal effect of corn acreage on nitrogen concentration in the country's water bodies using alternative empirical approaches. We find that a...

We develop statistics to represent the option implied stochastic discount factor for S&P 500 returns between 1990 and 2008. Our statistics, which we call State Prices of Conditional Quantiles (SPOCQ), estimate the market's willingness to pay for insurance against outcomes in various quantiles of...

We propose a new method to improve density forecasts of the equity premium using information from options markets. We obtain predictive densities from stochastic volatility (SV) and GARCH models, which we then tilt using the second moment of the risk-neutral distribution implied by options...

We test the efficiency of the California electricity reserves market by examining systematic differences between its day- and hour-ahead prices. We uncover significant day-ahead premia, which we attribute to market design characteristics. On the demand side, the market design established a...