In 2000, the Social Security system experienced an annual net inflow of over $150 billion, raising its balance to over one trillion dollars. Once the baby boom generation begins to retire, however, the annual surpluses will almost certainly turn into deficits, and the trust funds are predicted...

This paper presents measures of uncertainty about Social Security Trust Fund projections based on the new Long-Term Actuarial Model (LTAM) being developed at the Congressional Budget Office. Measuring the variance in Social Security outcomes involves three steps: specifying a model,...

This paper presents measures of uncertainty about Social Security Trust Fund projections based on the new Long-Term Actuarial Model (LTAM) being developed at the Congressional Budget Office. Measuring the variance in Social Security outcomes involves three steps: specifying a model,...