This paper investigates whether terms of trade have an impact on real exchange rates for commodity exporters and oil exporters. To this end, we estimate a long term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic fundamentals, including the commodity terms of trade. The...

This paper proposes a systematic study of the degree of financial integration following the degree of trade integration according to Balassa’s (1961) classification, from preferential trading area to complete economic integration. To this end, we exploit all the information contained in...

This paper analyzes the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on a large sample of 19 commodity markets. We rely on a robust measure of macroeconomic uncertainty based on a wide range of monthly macroeconomic and financial indicators, and we estimate a structural threshold VAR (TVAR) model to...

The aim of this paper is to investigate oil price shocks’ effects and their associated transmission channels on global imbalances. To this end, we rely on a Global VAR approach that allows us to account for trade and financial interdependencies between countries. Considering a sample of 30...

This paper aims at investigating the interactions between three key macroeconomic imbalances, namely Global imbalances,current-account discrepancies (external imbalances), output gaps (internal imbalances), and exchange-rate misalignments. To this end, we rely on the estimation of a panel VAR...

Cet article étudie la relation entre l’emploi et le PIB aux Etats Unis. Nous distinguons entre composantes cyclique et permanente de l’emploi via l’estimation d’une loi d’Okun non linéaire basée sur un modèle à correction d’erreur à transition lisse tenant compte simultanément...

The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between terms of trade and real exchange rates of commodityproducing Commodity currencies,countries on both the short and the long run. We pay particular attention to the dominant role played by oil among commodities by investigating the...

Oil-exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following a sharp increase in oil prices. In this paper, we investigate this oil price-current account relationship on a sample of 27 oil-exporting economies. Relying upon the estimation of panel smooth transition...