When the risk premium in the US stock market fell far below its historic level, Shiller (2000) attributed this to a bubble driven by psychological factors. As an alternative explanation, we point out that the observed risk premium may be reduced by one-sided intervention policy on the part of...

Recent empirical research by Mark Taylor and co-authors has found evidence of hybrid dynamics for the real exchange rate. While there is a random walk near equilibrium, for real exchange rates some distance from equilibrium there is mean-reversion which increases with the degree of misalignment....

Is sovereign borrowing so dierent from corporate debt that there is no need for bankruptcy- style procedures to protect debtors? With the waiver of immunity, sovereign debtors who already face severe disruption from short-term creditors grabbing their currency reserves are also exposed to...

In this paper we show how trading rules can generate excess volatility in the exchange rate through repeated entry and exit of currency bears and bulls. This is something of a caricature: but it allows us to show that offcial action can have self-fulfilling effects as market composition shifts...

A dynamic stochastic model of global equilibrium, where countries outside the U.S. face higher risk than the U.S. itself, predicts current account surpluses in the RoW and U.S. deficits. With Loss Aversion, such precautionary savings can cause substantial 'global imbalances', particularly if...

Recent empirical research by Mark Taylor and co-authors has found evidence of hybrid dynamics for the real exchange rate. While there is a random walk near equilibrium, for real exchange rates some distance from equilibrium there is mean-reversion which increases with the degree of misalignment....