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The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the...
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This study examines the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1875:Q1 to 2008:Q2 … breaks in the growth rate and its volatility. In so doing, we employ autoregressive generalized conditional … growth rate and its volatility with and without structural breaks in the mean and volatility processes. We discover one break …
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Recently, Fagiolo et al. (2008) find fat tails of economic growth rates after adjusting for outliers, autocorrelation, and heteroskedasticity. This paper employs US quarterly real output growth, showing that this finding of fat tails may reflect the Great Moderation. That is, leptokurtosis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757983
This paper investigates whether volatility of financial development plays a role in determining industrial growth … volatility. Three key findings emerge. First, overwhelming evidence supports the view that more volatile financial development … raises the industrial volatility in sectors that rely more on external liquidity. Second, the harmful effect of financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036017
volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process …. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility … with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no …
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