This study employs the panel convergence methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (2007) to explore the convergence dynamics of international equity markets. The analysis considers both country and industry effects. While traditional portfolio management strategies usually follow a top-down...

This paper examines the relationship between US crude oil and stock market prices, using a Markov-Switching vector error-correction model and a monthly data set from 1859 to 2013. The sample covers the entire modern era of the petroleum industry, which typically begins with the first drilled oil...

This paper investigates whether volatility of financial development plays a role in determining industrial growth volatility. Three key findings emerge. First, overwhelming evidence supports the view that more volatile financial development raises the industrial volatility in sectors that rely...

This study examines the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1875:Q1 to 2008:Q2. We examine the data for outliers and apply corrections when found. Next, we search for possible effects of structural breaks in the growth rate and its volatility. In so doing,...

Recently, Fagiolo et al. (2008) find fat tails of economic growth rates after adjusting for outliers, autocorrelation, and heteroskedasticity. This paper employs US quarterly real output growth, showing that this finding of fat tails may reflect the Great Moderation. That is, leptokurtosis...

This paper examines the linkages between population growth and standard-of-living growth in 21 countries over the period of 1870-2013. We apply the bootstrap panel causality test proposed by Kónya (2006), which accounts for both dependency and heterogeneity across countries. We find one-way...

The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the...

This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications...