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Recently, Fagiolo et al. (2008) find fat tails of economic growth rates after adjusting for outliers, autocorrelation, and heteroskedasticity. This paper employs US quarterly real output growth, showing that this finding of fat tails may reflect the Great Moderation. That is, leptokurtosis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757983
This paper revisits the issue of conditional volatility in real GDP growth rates for Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom …, and the United States. Previous studies find high persistence in the volatility. This paper shows that this finding … conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications modeling output growth and its volatility with and without the break in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014051340
volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process …. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility … with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014051341
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003944993
to variations in asset returns. We distinguish between low-volatility (bull) and high-volatility (bear) markets and … employ a TVP-VAR approach with stochastic volatility to assess the evolution of the interest rate in relation to housing and … spanning the period from 1890 to 2012 indicate that the interest rate responds more strongly to asset returns during low-volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007288
to variations in asset returns. We distinguish between low-volatility (bull) and high-volatility (bear) markets and … employ a TVP-VAR approach with stochastic volatility to assess the evolution of the interest rate in relation to housing and … spanning the period from 1890 to 2013 indicate that the interest rate responds more strongly to asset returns during low-volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997726
This paper applies a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive approach to estimate the relative effects of housing and stock returns on the growth rate of US consumption over time. We use annual data from 1890 to 2012 and find that at the one- and two-year horizons and over time, generally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025463
The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014215633
This study examines the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1875:Q1 to 2008:Q2 … breaks in the growth rate and its volatility. In so doing, we employ autoregressive generalized conditional … growth rate and its volatility with and without structural breaks in the mean and volatility processes. We discover one break …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065738
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012391039