The effect of business tax and regulation on growth, together with potential effects of government spending on education and R&D, is embodied in a model of a small open economy with growth choices. The structural model is estimated on post-war panel data for 76 countries and the bootstrap is...

The effect of business tax and regulation on growth, together with potential effects of government spending on education and R&D, is embodied in a model of a small open economy with growth choices. The structural model is estimated on post-war panel data for 76 countries and the bootstrap is...

We revisit the "puzzle" in open economy studies that evidence of international risk-sharing is hardly seen despite the completeness of the financial market. We reassess both risk-pooling via state-contingent bonds, and uncovered interest parity - both were believed to be different, and...

It has been an "empirical consensus" that data from developed economies generally do not support the hypothesis of international risk-sharing, either in the form of full risk-pooling via state-contingent assets or in the form of uncovered interest parity enforced by trading non-contingent...

Maximum Likelihood (ML) shows both lower power and higher bias in small sample Monte Carlo experiments than Indirect Inference (II) and IIís higher power comes from its use of the model-restricted distribution of the auxiliary model coeffi cients (Le et al. 2016). We show here that IIís higher...

Macroeconomic researchers use a variety of estimators to parameterise their models empirically. One such is FIML; another is a form of indirect inference we term "informal" under which data features are "targeted" by the model -i.e. parameters are chosen so that model-simulated features...

A common practice in estimating parameters in DSGE models is to Önd a set that when simulated gets close to an average of certain data moments; the modelís simulated performance for other moments is then compared to the data for these as an informal test of the model. We call this procedure...

Using Monte Carlo experiments, we examine the performance of indirect inference tests of DSGE models in small samples, using various models in widespread use. We compare these with tests based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio). We find that both tests have power so that a...

We propose a new type of test. Its aim is to test subsets of the structural equations of a DSGE model. The test draws on the statistical inference for limited information models and the use of indirect inference to test DSGE models. Using Monte Carlo experiments on two subsets of equations of...

This paper addresses the growing gulf between traditional macroeconometrics and the increasingly dominant preference among macroeconomists to use DSGE models and to estimate them using Bayesian estimation with strong priors but not to test them as they are likely to fail conventional statistical...