Long-run inflation expectations should not respond to economic news if the central bank is seen as credibly committed to stabilising inflation. In this paper we find that since the onset of the global financial crisis, medium and long-term inflation expectations implied by inflation swaps in the...

This paper analyses the results from a new monthly survey of consumers’ euro area inflation expectations before and during the pandemic. We find that consumers’ longterm euro area inflation expectations have remained elevated above the ECB’s inflation aim throughout the pandemic. Moreover,...

We provide a new perspective on disagreement in inflation expectations by examining the full probability distributions of UK consumer inflation forecasts based on an adaptive bootstrap multimodality test. Furthermore, we compare the inflation forecasts of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy...

We provide new evidence on the level and probability distribution of consumers' longterm expectations of inflation in the euro area and the Netherlands, using a representative Dutch survey. We find that consumers' long-term (ten years ahead) euro area inflation expectations are not well anchored...

We study the anchoring properties of long-term inflation expectations in emerging and advanced economies, as a measure of monetary policy credibility. We proxy anchoring by how short-term expectations relate to long-term inflation expectations. We find that long-term inflation expectations are...

We provide evidence on the reactions of the level and probability distribution of households’ expectations of inflation in the euro area to the ECB’s monetary strategy change to a symmetric inflation target in July 2021, and to the subsequent strong rise in euro area inflation above target....

We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations - in particular at a time of great financial and economic turmoil - by evaluating results from a survey conducted from July 2009 through July 2010. Participants in this survey answered a weekly questionnaire about their short-,...

We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations – in particular at a time of great financial and economic turmoil – by evaluating results from a survey conducted from July 2009 through July 2010. Participants in this survey answered a weekly questionnaire about their...

This article examines whether short-run inflation expectations and indicators of longterm credibility have been affected by the great recession and by the policies to counter it. Measures of short-run expectations dropped in the crisis, particularly in advanced economies, but have since...

The Federal Reserve re-established a swap line with the European Central Bank in response to the international liquidity stresses created by the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We examine the swap line's effectiveness in addressing these stresses in 2010–11. We find that announcements about...