Diese Arbeit besteht aus vier Essays, die empirische und methodische Beiträge zur Messung von Konjunkturzyklen und deren Zusammenhänge zu demographischen Variablen liefern. Der erste Essay analysiert unter Zuhilfenahme eines Bayesianischen Dynamischen Faktormodelles die Volatilität des...

We focus on the two eras of globalization: “then” (the period 1870 to 1913) and “now” (the period since the 1970s). We look at the special position in the global macroeconomy of the hegemons in each era: Britain then, and the United States now. And adducing historical data to match what...

The concept of a new Industrial Revolution has recently become of great interest to general economists of all persuasions. For example, the New Growth Theory has placed renewed emphasis on the importance of technological change in modern economic growth, and a number of authors have suggested...