Previous studies on the determinants of the choice of college major have assumed a constant probability of sucess across majors or a constant earnings streamacross majors. Our model disregards these two restrictive assumptions in computing an expected earnings variable to explain the probability...

We instillate rational cognition and learning in "seemingly riskless" choices and judgments. Preferences and possibilities are given in a stochastic sense and based on revisable expectations. The theory predicts experimental preference reversals and passes a sharp econometric test of the status...