In everyday macroeconomic analysis, businessmen and policymakers monitor many variables in order to assess the current situation of a country’s business cycle. However, making this assessment is extremely difficult, especially on the verge of recessions: does a drop in one or more of these...

We use the results of business tendency surveys (BTS) to forecast private investment growth in Peru, exploring the possible non-linear link between the BTS and private investment for forecasting purposes. We find that business confidence indices extracted from BTS, in particular the one...

The Consumer Confidence Index of APOYO Consultoría (INDICCA) is computed based on the responses to ten questions of a monthly survey in the city of Lima which aim to reflect the consumers’ spending intentions. We evaluate some sub-components of INDICCA in terms of their predictive and...