A strategy for estimating, filtering and forecasting time-varying factor betas is proposed. The approach is based on the multivariate realized regression principle, an omnibus noise filter and an adaptive long memory forecasting model. While the multivariate realized regression approach allows...

In this paper we show how IGARCH effects can arise as an artifact of unaccounted structural change. Using daily returns for the DM/US$ and Yen/US$ exchange rates, the finding is shown to have empirical relevance. GARCH models appear to be useful approximations, for short term forecasting, to a...

In this paper we test for the existence of long memory and structural breaks in the realized variance process for the DM/US$ and Yen/US$ exchange rates. While long memory is evident in the actual processes, a structural break analysis reveals that this feature is partially explained by...

A strategy for estimating, ?filtering and forecasting time-varying factor betas is proposed. The approach is based on the multivariate realized regression principle, an omnibus noise ?filter and an adaptive long memory forecasting model. While the multivariate realized regression approach allows...

We propose a measure of core inflation which is derived from a Markov switching ARFIMA model. The Markov switching ARFIMA model generalises the standard ARFIMA model allowing mean reversion to take place with respect to a changing unconditional mean. By imposing a coswitching restriction for...

In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core inflation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the scaled common persistent factor in...

In this paper we study the zero frequency spectral properties of fractionally cointegrated long memory processes and introduce a new frequency domain principal components estimator of the cointegration space and the factor loading matrix for the long memory factors. We find that for fractionally...

In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core in- flation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the scaled common persistent factor in...

In this paper we study the zero frequency spectral properties of fractionally cointegrated long memory processes and introduce a new frequency domain principal components estimator of the cointegration space and the factor loading matrix for the long memory factors. We find that for fractionally...

What is the role of financial speculation in determining the real oil price? We find that while macroeconomic shocks have been the major upward driver of the real oil price since the mid 1980s, also financial shocks have sizably contributed since the early 2000s, and at a much larger extent...