Public sentiment says the recession isn't over. Never mind that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the arbiter of recessions, declared that the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 officially ended in June 2009. An unrelenting pessimism constrains the recovery as consumers spend...

This article evaluates the ability of the yield spread to forecast real economic activity in 11 industrial countries. The first section of this article defines the yield spread and explains why the spread may be a useful predictor of real economic activity. The second section describes the data...

Dallas Fed Research Director Harvey Rosenblum discusses the stability of the U.S. economy's Great Moderation and how it set the stage for the financial turmoil that has gripped the nation since August 2007.